“When you analyse our problems, you will come to the conclusion that we have been ruled by leaders who don’t have conscience,” he once told me. What's more, he has been very disciplined in his personal life. You cannot fault his integrity.
All attempts to link him to scandals or impropriety have been unsuccessful. There are insinuations and conjectures here and there, but there is yet no substance to any.
Having said this, however, I am also not unaware of his shortcomings and limitations as he seeks to become president of Nigeria. The most common accusation is that he is a religious extremist, having been quoted as saying Muslims should not vote for non-Muslims in the 2003 elections. He has denied the statement but it sticks till this day. He is also described as not very articulate, especially on policy issues.
I have heard a few critics (including former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar) say Buhari always abdicates authority. “When he was head of state,” Atiku said, “he was not in charge. When he was PTF chairman, he was not in charge”. The impression is that he stays aloof while his subordinates call the shots. Some critics also use his “dictatorial” records as a military head of state against him.
Even as a Buhari admirer, I have also been bothered about his ability to win elections. Malam Nasir el-Rufai once described him as “unelectable”. I don’t really know what el-Rufai meant, but I have always worried about the ability of Buhari to gain the support of the critical stakeholders necessary to win elections. As presidential candidate of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) in 2003 and 2007, most of the party’s governors were working for or with President Olusegun Obasanjo. Buhari did not have the necessary logistical and financial support. We all know the role governors play in mobilisation and logistics. They largely control the electoral machinery down to the ward level because of the enormous resources at their disposal. Without their support, you must be extremely strong to win elections.
In 2011, Buhari tried for the third time and lost yet again. In his own analysis, he lost because the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) colluded with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to rig. In my humble opinion, I would say he lost because of the failed alliance deal between the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and his party, the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). I am not ruling out rigging, mind you, but rigging apart, how was Buhari going to be president of Nigeria without a strong presence in Southern Nigeria? Buhari is very popular in the core North, no questions about that. He has the unalloyed, unpurchasable support of the majority of the masses. He also had the support of the clerics, who are closer to the masses than the emirs and the political leaders.
A successful alliance with ACN, which has a strong presence in the South-west, would have given the PDP and its candidate, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, a very good run for their money. The moment the alliance talks failed, I told myself: “Game over!” I did not expect Buhari to win the election. Why did the alliance fail? There were many reasons, but I think mistakes were made ab initio. According to ACN insiders, after the initial talks were held and a committee was set up to work out the modalities of the relationship, Buhari went on to enter into an agreement with the Save Nigeria Group to pick his running mate from one of its leaders. ACN chieftains were enraged. What would be their own gain? Politics is about horse-trading.
Even as a Buhari admirer, I have also been bothered about his ability to win elections. Malam Nasir el-Rufai once described him as “unelectable”. I don’t really know what el-Rufai meant, but I have always worried about the ability of Buhari to gain the support of the critical stakeholders necessary to win elections. As presidential candidate of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) in 2003 and 2007, most of the party’s governors were working for or with President Olusegun Obasanjo. Buhari did not have the necessary logistical and financial support. We all know the role governors play in mobilisation and logistics. They largely control the electoral machinery down to the ward level because of the enormous resources at their disposal. Without their support, you must be extremely strong to win elections.
In 2011, Buhari tried for the third time and lost yet again. In his own analysis, he lost because the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) colluded with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to rig. In my humble opinion, I would say he lost because of the failed alliance deal between the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and his party, the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). I am not ruling out rigging, mind you, but rigging apart, how was Buhari going to be president of Nigeria without a strong presence in Southern Nigeria? Buhari is very popular in the core North, no questions about that. He has the unalloyed, unpurchasable support of the majority of the masses. He also had the support of the clerics, who are closer to the masses than the emirs and the political leaders.
A successful alliance with ACN, which has a strong presence in the South-west, would have given the PDP and its candidate, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, a very good run for their money. The moment the alliance talks failed, I told myself: “Game over!” I did not expect Buhari to win the election. Why did the alliance fail? There were many reasons, but I think mistakes were made ab initio. According to ACN insiders, after the initial talks were held and a committee was set up to work out the modalities of the relationship, Buhari went on to enter into an agreement with the Save Nigeria Group to pick his running mate from one of its leaders. ACN chieftains were enraged. What would be their own gain? Politics is about horse-trading.
Why would ACN align with CPC if they were not going to produce the candidate or the running mate? CPC, on the other hand, argued that the national leader of ACN, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, wanted to be running mate to Buhari. They felt it was not proper to field a Muslim-Muslim ticket (especially given the public image of Buhari among Christians). We can list a million other reasons why the talks failed. The failure of the alliance meant Buhari’s chances were mightily reduced while Jonathan was the biggest gainer.
What is Buhari’s strategy to become president of Nigeria? To be honest, I cannot really put my finger on it. I know that based on the figures in the voter register, Buhari can become president with the votes of the North—that is if the voters overwhelmingly support him and there is no constitutional requirement for “vote spread” across at least 24 states of the federation. According to INEC figures, the North-west zone, where Buhari comes from, has the highest number of registered voters, which is about 18.9 million. This is more than the combined figure of 15.9 million credited to the South-east and South-south. South-west, where ACN is very strong, has 14.2 million registered voters. An alliance between the core Northern states and South-west would have dealt a fatal blow on the PDP. But it failed.
The CPC real strategy, I guess, was to win the 19 Northern states by a wide margin in the first round. I believe they also calculated that Jonathan would not be able to score the majority of votes in the first round, even if 17 Southern states voted for him. So, without either of them scoring the required 25 per cent in at least 24 states, there would be a run-off. Then Buhari would win the run-off based on the expected large support of Northern voters. This calculation, unfortunately, did not work out as Jonathan won seven states in the North and Buhari could only win 12. Of course, I have always argued that the North has never voted for one candidate since elections started in pre-Independence era and I did not see that happening suddenly. CPC’s permutations were therefore wrong.
As we approach 2015, it is becoming obvious that Buhari wants to run again. That would be his fourth attempt. When he received CPC leaders last week, he said he would make his decision known “soon” whether or not he would run again. To me, that is a clear indication that he is considering giving it “one more and final” shot. This indication would have dented the hopes of el-Rufai, who is also rumoured to be eyeing the CPC presidential ticket in 2015. If Buhari decides to run (in 2015), he will certainly pick the party’s ticket. El-Rufai, who has a massive following on the social media (facebook and twitter), may have to look at an alternative platform. Indeed, I have heard a lot of people say it would be better for Buhari to support el-Rufai than run again. They argue that el-Rufai is younger, has more national appeal and is more hands-on. That is a different argument altogether.
If Buhari eventually decides to run, I think he has scored another own goal even before kick-off. While I agree completely with him on the need for free and fair elections, his further pronouncement about “dogs and baboons” being soaked in blood is less than acceptable at this critical moment in our nationhood. The need for credible elections is something that can never be overstated (although, unlike many other commentators, I don’t believe it is only the PDP that rigs; from all that I have seen and heard, no party is clean, but it is more sexy to brand the ruling party the only riggers). We need credible elections like oxygen. There are genuine Nigerians out there who want to run for office but who are discouraged by the filthy electoral process. If we don’t clean up the process, we will remain stuck in political underdevelopment. Buhari can never be wrong on this. He needs our support, the support of all Nigerians who mean well.
I am, however, disturbed and disgusted about his reported threat of bloodshed in the event of rigging. We’ve had too much bloodshed in this country in the last one year to contemplate another one. Buhari is a leader, a former head of state, a presidential material any day. But part of leadership qualities is self-control. If indeed Buhari said it, I think he should just honourably withdraw the statement and apologise. He can make the same point about credible elections without the threat of bloodshed. That’s not cool enough, General.
Written by Simon Kolawole
What is Buhari’s strategy to become president of Nigeria? To be honest, I cannot really put my finger on it. I know that based on the figures in the voter register, Buhari can become president with the votes of the North—that is if the voters overwhelmingly support him and there is no constitutional requirement for “vote spread” across at least 24 states of the federation. According to INEC figures, the North-west zone, where Buhari comes from, has the highest number of registered voters, which is about 18.9 million. This is more than the combined figure of 15.9 million credited to the South-east and South-south. South-west, where ACN is very strong, has 14.2 million registered voters. An alliance between the core Northern states and South-west would have dealt a fatal blow on the PDP. But it failed.
The CPC real strategy, I guess, was to win the 19 Northern states by a wide margin in the first round. I believe they also calculated that Jonathan would not be able to score the majority of votes in the first round, even if 17 Southern states voted for him. So, without either of them scoring the required 25 per cent in at least 24 states, there would be a run-off. Then Buhari would win the run-off based on the expected large support of Northern voters. This calculation, unfortunately, did not work out as Jonathan won seven states in the North and Buhari could only win 12. Of course, I have always argued that the North has never voted for one candidate since elections started in pre-Independence era and I did not see that happening suddenly. CPC’s permutations were therefore wrong.
As we approach 2015, it is becoming obvious that Buhari wants to run again. That would be his fourth attempt. When he received CPC leaders last week, he said he would make his decision known “soon” whether or not he would run again. To me, that is a clear indication that he is considering giving it “one more and final” shot. This indication would have dented the hopes of el-Rufai, who is also rumoured to be eyeing the CPC presidential ticket in 2015. If Buhari decides to run (in 2015), he will certainly pick the party’s ticket. El-Rufai, who has a massive following on the social media (facebook and twitter), may have to look at an alternative platform. Indeed, I have heard a lot of people say it would be better for Buhari to support el-Rufai than run again. They argue that el-Rufai is younger, has more national appeal and is more hands-on. That is a different argument altogether.
If Buhari eventually decides to run, I think he has scored another own goal even before kick-off. While I agree completely with him on the need for free and fair elections, his further pronouncement about “dogs and baboons” being soaked in blood is less than acceptable at this critical moment in our nationhood. The need for credible elections is something that can never be overstated (although, unlike many other commentators, I don’t believe it is only the PDP that rigs; from all that I have seen and heard, no party is clean, but it is more sexy to brand the ruling party the only riggers). We need credible elections like oxygen. There are genuine Nigerians out there who want to run for office but who are discouraged by the filthy electoral process. If we don’t clean up the process, we will remain stuck in political underdevelopment. Buhari can never be wrong on this. He needs our support, the support of all Nigerians who mean well.
I am, however, disturbed and disgusted about his reported threat of bloodshed in the event of rigging. We’ve had too much bloodshed in this country in the last one year to contemplate another one. Buhari is a leader, a former head of state, a presidential material any day. But part of leadership qualities is self-control. If indeed Buhari said it, I think he should just honourably withdraw the statement and apologise. He can make the same point about credible elections without the threat of bloodshed. That’s not cool enough, General.
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I support Simon, if Buhari made that "bad" statement he should apologize and life goes on. The struggle ahead is too for decent politicians.
ReplyDeleteThis write is inspired by PDP... thisdya na Publisher na Jonathan man. OI
ReplyDeleteAPOLOGY OR NOT, WAHALAHI HE WILL NOT RULE. THIS IS A DEVIL MAN. SHI YA SA ALLAH HAVE NOT MADE HIM WIN. INSHA ALLAHU HE WILL NEVER BE D PRESIDENT. CAUSEING CONFUSSION EVERYWHERE, DID HE TINK IS ONLY XTIANS THAT ARE DYING EVEN MOSLEMS TOO ARE DYING. IT HIS BLOOD AND THIS FAMILY HE WILL DRINK. maryam mohd.
ReplyDeleteMaryam u they vex ni?
ReplyDeleteAbeg Naija issue don tire person
Hi Vamp. Buhari,sure you'll see 2015?
ReplyDeletetake it easy maryam
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThisday must actually be a PDP organisation and government news agent for their unfairness in reportage as accused by the dreaded Boko haram.This write is PDP should not be credited.OBJ did say election was to be do or die affair so tell me where he apologized? The real meaning of Buhari Statement was that if PDP should use rigging as their strategy for winning election the Nigeria masses will not accept and can cause unrest in the nation so it is just a matter of advising PDP to look into another mean of winning Elections.
ReplyDeleteI am not sure Nigerian masses are still stupid to follow this kind of write ups motivated for political purpose blindly,this writer used a deceptive way by accepting that Buhari is a good candidate for the Aso Rock Job but the undertone was to paint the man black to the readers so if you people can just stop for once and lets work together for real progress,let the right people be put in Government so we can move forward and stop misleading the non-calculating Nigerians
As for no party is clean, I am no politician but still I still admire the ACN in the south,I can not say of CPC in the North but the ACN has shown a degree of genuineness and fairness in the past years.People may say Jonathan did not rig the last election but I disagree,he just did not rig it openly but used his PHD sense to do it in another way acceptable to the masses.The number of Votes from South South especially in Akwa Ibom and others are questionable and the your corpers that conducted the election there will agree with me even though they can not come out to say or witness it,they were paid and threatened to conduct election in their way if they want to take their heads back home so with him capturing South south that way,how would you expect another candidate to win?
ACN on the other hand won their states on Merit and it was clear that the party has staged their popularity beyond rigging,Mr Rauf Aregbesola Won in Osun State,the works of the Lagos state Governor speaks for him,Ex gov.Alao Akala was dumped by oyo state people following his bad style of governance and corruption,the same goes for the ogun states governor who failed to install successor for himself because he fell out of grace of the people of ogun states who are tired of the PDP, Comrade Oshiomole won in Edo and will still win again because of his good works and transparent type of government so can someone tell me why this writer said all parties are not clean? I can say that this writer is trying to convince people accept and trust PDP once again because the heat is up for the 2015 race.
Fellow Nigerians,please let is think again and very well,it is just too bad for us to keep living like slaves in our country,we need to think and think very well to make a better choice than we have been making for a long time in Nigeria.This must be the time to change don't be deceived.
The PDP dont deserve to Lead Nigerians they are the cause of all the Suffering in the Land for a President like Jonathan and all those in the Presidency trying to use Buhari statement to cause ethnic and tribal sentiments its unfortunate that shows how desperate they all they will always prefer to cause division in other to remain in Power.Look the speed they took to answer Buharis statement without knowing what he really said it shows they are out to disterbelise the Country.If People like Azazi or Babagida Aliyu or any PDP man talk that is critical they will say they will wait for the Original Script before they respond.
ReplyDeleteI was so shock that the Presidency could not even understand simple addage or was he trying to destabilise the country?If so its on called for bcos the people he is leading he is trying to destroy them.
I also still wondering if the President can respond to Buhari statement like this why cant he respond to the yeanings of Nigerians when they Protested against all his Government Anti-People Policies? And the Problems Facing Nigeria that is calling for his attention(Farouk Report on fuel Subsidy Scam,the various corruption cases against his govt and members of his cabinet,Insecurity,Poverty,Unemployment,etc)?Maybe they cant care?
All political party rigs election, but it all depends on hw deep the rigging is. ACN, PDP, CPC and other political party are election riggers, who doesn't wnt his party to be the ruling party. Pls let's stop all these arguements and let's put head together to fight CORRUPTION cos its the cause of all these nonsense.
ReplyDeleteWhoever anticipates the PDP governance in Nigeria must be friends and family of the PDP and eating directly from their table or crumbs from their plates.Fashola did not need to rig election before he was re-elected and so will it be for other ACN governor,Nigerian masses are not fool when they see progress.
ReplyDeletePDP may have made mistakes, but a Buhari / Tinubu ticket will be the biggest mistake of all. Buhari has nothing to deliver and Tinubu is not a democrat, at least he admitted to that when accused by Fashola at his 60th birthday. Not only did he admit to it, he said he was too old to change his ways that had profitted him this lond. Profitted him? Should he not be thinking about profitting the masses. Apart from Lagos State and Edo State where the Governors have refused to be puppets, no ACN controlled State is delivering. There will be an alternative to Jonathan, Buhari and Tinubu come 2015.
ReplyDelete